A multi-model analysis of the EU's path to net zero

Abstract

The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU's path, from “Fit for 55” in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc's ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%–65% in 2030, to 60%–70% in 2040, and to 75%–90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5–2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs. © 2023 The Author(s)