Alternative trajectories for decarbonizing urban transportation

Abstract

The transportation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for one-quarter (?7 Gt CO2) of present day annual releases, 75% of which come from road transportation. *Unless there is a major effort to change current energy consumption patterns, transportation carbon emissions are projected to double by 2050 relative to 2010 levels. The mitigation potential for light duty vehicles in 2050 is ?5 Gt CO2 at a carbon cost of 26 $2006 per tonne of CO2. *According to our simulations, to achieve significant carbon emission reductions in the transportation sector by 2050 it will be necessary to reduce the demand for passenger cars, improve vehicle efficiencies, increase share of electric vehicles, and decarbonize electricity supply through the use of renewables, carbon capture technologies, and/or nuclear energy.