dc.contributor.author | Abadie, Luis María | es |
dc.contributor.author | Sainz de Murieta Zugadi, Elisa | |
dc.contributor.author | Galarraga, Ibon | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-02-23T14:15:26Z | |
dc.date.available | 2017-02-23T14:15:26Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2016-12-16 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Frontiers in Marine Science 3 (2016) //265 | es |
dc.identifier.issn | 2296-7745 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10810/20789 | |
dc.description.abstract | This paper analyses the risk of extreme coastal events in major European coastal cities using a stochastic diffusion model that is calibrated with the worst case emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The model incorporates uncertainty in the sea-level rise (SLR) distribution. Expected mean annual losses are calculated for 19 European coastal cities, together with two risk measures: the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES). Both measures are well-known in financial economics and enable us to calculate the impact of the worst SLR paths under uncertainty. The results presented here can serve as valuable inputs for cities in deciding how much risk they are willing to accept, and consequently how much adaptation they need depending on the risk aversion of their decision-makers. | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 603906 (Project: ECONADAPT). LMA and IG are grateful for financial support received from the Basque Government via project GIC12/177-IT-399-13. This work has also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. H2020-DRS-9-2014 (Project: RESIN). LMA thanks the financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (ECO2015-68023). | es |
dc.language.iso | eng | es |
dc.publisher | Frontiers in Marine Science | es |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/653522 | |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | BC3 Journal Articles;JA-1204 | |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es |
dc.subject | uncertainty | es |
dc.subject | sea-level rise | es |
dc.subject | coastal flooding | es |
dc.subject | economic losses | es |
dc.subject | risk measures | es |
dc.subject | cities | es |
dc.title | Climate Risk Assessment under Uncertainty: An Application to Main European Coastal Cities | es |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es |
dc.rights.holder | © 2016 Abadie, Sainz de Murieta and Galarraga. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. | |
dc.relation.publisherversion | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2016.00265 | es |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3389/fmars.2016.00265 | |
dc.contributor.funder | European Commission | |