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Now showing items 11-20 of 20
The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2002-07)
Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term ...
Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2009-12)
This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture ...
The Importance of Stock Market Returns in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules: a Structural Approach
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2006)
This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. ...
The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2003-04)
Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the ...
Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2002-08)
Farmer (1991) suggests that in a model in which there are multiple rational expectations (RE) equilibria agents may find it useful to coordinate their expectations in a unique RE equilibrium which is
immune to the Lucas ...
Is there a Phillips Curve in the US and the EU15 Countries? An empirical investigation
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2002-08)
This paper studies the comovement between output and inflation in the EU15 countries. Following den Haan (2000), I use the correlations of VAR forecast errors at different horizons in order to analyze the output-inflation ...
Term Structure and the Estimated Monetary Policy Rule in the Eurozone
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2008)
In this paper we estimate a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure in order to analyze two issues. First, we analyze the effect of introducing an explicit term structure ...
How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? an Indirect Inference Approach
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2005-05)
This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model under alternative specifications of the monetary policy rule using U.S. and Eurozone data. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical ...
The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2004)
This paper analyzes the performance of alternative versions of the New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model in order to replicate the comovement observed between output and inflation during the Greenspan era. Following Den Haan ...
Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe
(University of the Basque Country, Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, 2005-02)
This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business ...