Long-term changes in offshore wind power density and wind turbine capacity factor in the Iberian Peninsula (1900–2010)

Abstract

This study analysed temporal and spatial changes in offshore wind power density (WPD) and capacity factor (CF) around the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century by analysing data from ERA20 and ERA5. Both WPD and CF were calculated using reanalysis data considering a wind turbine with a hub height of 90 m and incorporating the effect of air density changes. Since ERA5 assimilates more observations, the data from ERA20 was bias-corrected using quantile matching, with ERA5 reanalysis data as the reference. As both variables are based on wind speed (WS), this variable was also corrected and analysed. The results show that the mean values for WPD, CF, and WS during the 20th century were highest in the Atlantic zone and the Gulf of Lyon and lowest around the Balearic Islands. The results of the assessment of decadal trends using the Theil–Sen estimator show that all indicators increased significantly in the waters of the Iberian Peninsula during the study period (1900–2010). Considering the mean slope over this period, the change over the entire period could amount to 174 Wm-2 for WPD, 8.8% for CF, and 1.1 ms−1 for WS. Based on these changes, offshore wind turbines would have increased their returns by approximately 20% over the 11 decades.