Understanding “plausibility”: A relational approach to the anticipatory heuristics of future scenarios

Abstract

The creation of future scenarios is considered a valuable methodological tool for shaping the anticipatory governance of emerging technologies. Although plausibility is presented as a necessary (but not sufficient) criterion for assessing future scenarios, there is no consensus on its meaning or operationalization. The main objective of this paper is to contribute to clarifying the meaning of plausibility and the theoretical role it plays in the application of scenario building practices to technological governance. In particular, I will argue that plausibility can be understood as a methodological criterion and as an anticipatory-enabling ‘epistemic device.’ In this sense, I support the value of theoretically distinguishing between the methodological-limiting and the anticipatory-enabling roles of plausibility in foresight practices.